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Now You See It, Now You Don’t

Pancho Villa's picture

The American Stock Market, two steps forward one step back. Or at least that’s the way it was before the financial meltdown. Now it seems to be just the opposite, one step forward and two steps back. Just what does it really mean for the businesses traded on the stock exchange?

To the business it means nothing, absolutely nothing. But how can this be? I own 100 shares of XYZ Company, what do you mean it means nothing to the company? Well yes it is true that it means nothing to the Company.

The only time a Company should care about the price of it’s shares is when it is poised to offer the shares to the public. Once the shares have been issued they are of no consequence to the Company. The company issues shares to raise capital. Once the company sells the shares it has raised the capital it wanted and the shares become nothing more than evidence of ownership in that company.

Now here is where the stock market and wall street come in. If I no longer wish to own a part of XYZ Company I look for someone to buy my shares (part ownership) in that company.

Therefore, one might say that Wall Street is simply a flea market of people selling their tiny part ownerships in companies. If a company is doing well that means the owners will do well, if the company is not doing well then the owners (stockholders) stand to lose their investment in the business (the purchase price of the stock).

I say that because the health of the company has some bearing as to the price one is willing to pay for part ownership (stock) in a company.

So now the company has raised the capital it needed and is out of the game. The players now become those participating in this flea market we call Wall Street. At this flea market (Wall Street) most people investing want to buy a part ownership (stock) at a reduced (cheap) price and resell it at a much higher price (profit). Others want to sell stock they don’t yet have and replace it when the price drops (short sale).

Now here is the interesting thing. A lot of people are saying that they are losing their shirt, that the value of the stocks they own are down. That is not true! If those investors would just hold on to the stock they own nothing would happen in their bank account.

Let’s look at how it works. Suppose you own a hundred thousand dollar home. And that home prices just dropped 20 percent. Your home is now worth only eighty thousand dollars. Does that mean you lost twenty thousand dollars? NO NO. Take a good look at your bank account. Every thing you had is still there. You have lost nothing UNTILL you decide to sell and someone offers and you accept the lower price.

The same is true for the stocks on Wall Street. The value of the offers may have dipped but the ownership and the amount of shares is still the same. If the sellers would just refuse to sell then the price of the investment would go back up.

So as is plain from the above, the fact that the stock market is down has nothing to do with the company losing money. If a company is losing money it is because of poor leadership not because Joe Sixpack sold his 100 shares to Windy the Waittress at a loss. The loss Joe Sixpack suffered is entirely outside of the company.
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Pancho Villa - a bleeding heart liberal Revolutionary.
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IntricateGirl's picture

PV,

What you said is accurate, but it's not that simple. HowStuffWorks has a great article on it that I won't recap here. The short version is that what you're saying is true, except that there's also paying dividends, splitting stock, and many more things like that to consider. To use your flea market analogy, dividends would be like someone selling a baseball card at a flea market, and they pay you a little bit for buying it! Or splitting the stock would be like taking the baseball card, cutting it in half, and even though you've still got one baseball card that's somehow worth just as much, they've now claim to have sold twice as many baseball cards, and when you sell it, you can sell each half as a whole. lol It's a little crazy.

Plus, apart from that, there's a value to it that has nothing to do with the actual value. It's completely intangible, but very real. Take someone like my mom. She's looking at the stock market and thinking, "Gee, it took me 20 years to build up $700k, and I don't think I've got another 7 years left to build it back up to that level. And especially with my company having layoffs." For those with retirement looming, your house analogy is still accurate, except that someone is simultaneously telling them, "You have to sell your house" and "You're not going to get a good price for it." Sure, if she could wait it out, she'd see it return to the same level as before. For someone my age, I can afford to wait it out. For someone her age, the odds are against her.

Pancho Villa's picture

How Right You Are

You are absolutely right. However, I was trying to keep it simple. The age of the investor has a lot to do with realizing a gain or loss on sale. But then things just keep on getting more complicated.

The point is that the bailout .... companies (banks) losing money has nothing to do with their stock rising or falling. It the other way around. The performance of the company has everything to do with the price of the stock. No one wants to invest in a business that is going no where.

IntricateGirl's picture

PV,

I figured you were probably going for the simple explanation. Sadly, there's not much that's simple about the stock market. P/E ratios, Ted spread- bah! I wish it was as easy as "Psst, I'll give you an even 260 for that share of Google, and I got a nice Berkshire Hathaway that I'm selling reeeeal cheap."

"No one wants to invest in a business that is going no where."

Apparently Paulson, Bernanke, the White House, and a majority of Congress do. And god help us all. Wink

huttriver10's picture

What did you think about the speech...

by our new rightwing Kiwi prime minister John Key at Apec condemning all the moneymen, and those he used to work with too!

Sassys's picture

Well Kiwi Pete I did not hear said speech but I can say

that the rest of the world is putting the blame squarely on the Americans! They are correct to a degree, but they too share in the blame...hell there is plenty of blame to go around. Paulson should at least attempt to tell us where he has put some of the bailout money, and what he intends to do with the rest...I believe he wont use the rest until Obama has his people firmly in place, which should be sometime shortly after Thanksgiving. Obama is in a tough spot right now...he can't really get too involved and yet we are sinking very, very rapidly. Bush keeps saying things like "we will come out of this stronger than ever" suuuure we will, but no thanks to him!

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